Posté le Lundi 25 août 2008 par Sittingbull
Gallup’s Quick Read on the Election
Updated Aug. 25, 2008
1. Democrats have a “structural” election advantage. Fewer Americans identify as Republicans than four years ago. The Republican Party is seen less favorably than the Democratic Party. There is low approval for the incumbent Republican president. Voters want a change in leadership. Democrats win on generic ballots for both President and Congress.
2. Still, Barack Obama led John McCain by only an average of three percentage points (registered voters) for most of this summer. The two candidates ended up in a statistical tie just as the Democratic convention began.
3. The structure of this race is now similar to 2000 and 2004 — very close elections. Both candidates this year have high percentage of their party’s vote, although McCain has a slightly higher “partisan loyalty” factor. The two candidates split independents. To win by a large margin, a candidate needs a significant advantage among independents and needs to perform at least marginally better among their own party identifiers than the opponent does among his partisans. We don’t see this pattern developing so far this year for Obama nor McCain.
4. Turnout will be a key factor. Obama would benefit from unusual (and unprecedented) enthusiasm among young voters and minority voters. McCain would benefit from a more typical higher turnout among Republicans, highly religious white voters. Results of likely voter modeling this summer so far have been mixed. Overall enthusiasm about voting, which was higher earlier this year, has dropped off. Democrats remain more enthusiastic than Republicans, suggesting an early Democratic turnout edge.
5. Current position of the candidates predicts little. In previous two elections, both candidates who lead polls in summer, pre-convention (Bush in 2000, Kerry in 2004), ended up losing the popular vote. Over the weekend, Gallup’s polling showed that 30% of registered voters said they either had not made up their mind or could change their mind about their candidate support.
6. History predicts modest bounces for candidates when they make their vice presidential announcements and after their conventions. But early indications after Obama’s announcement of Sen. Joe Biden as his vice presidential nominee show little immediate effect. This year, a great deal of activity is being compressed in a short two-week period beginning Saturday, Aug. 23. Back-to-back conventions are unprecedented. Voters will have a steady stream of election input. Bounce will likely follow bounce. This could be one of most fascinating times in presidential election history. Standings after conventions will be critical.
7. Pattern of candidate support is similar to 2000 and 2004 elections. Obama’s strengths: non-white race and ethnic groups, including blacks and Hispanics; 18-29; those with postgraduate educations; women; those with very low incomes; those who have no religious identification/for whom religion is not important/do not attend church; those who are unmarried. McCain’s strengths: non-Hispanic whites; 65 and older; those who are married; white Protestants and non-Catholic Christians; whites who attend church frequently/for whom religion is important.
8. Top voter issue this year is the economy. Gas prices, Iraq, healthcare, and terrorism remain important. Obama’s perceived strengths: domestic issues, compassion, empathy, bringing about change. McCain’s perceived strengths: experience, international issues, terrorism, viewed as capable commander in chief. A continuing uptick in consumer confidence, downward drift in gas prices, and increase in perceived success in Iraq could benefit McCain.
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Une réponse à “Hé!”
25 août 08 à 23:48
Debra confirme : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=597YG23mAWs
